Evidence before certainty.

Facts, polls, attributed forecasts and Midterm Watch editorial comparisons are distinct content types. A forecast’s exact future result cannot be verified before the election. Comparing two forecasters tests agreement and exposes uncertainty; it does not certify a winner.

Calendar facts and candidate identities use at least two source documents in the published scope. Official current election instructions resolve stale generic calendars. A mirror and its original publisher are not independent forecasters. Poll methods are taken from the original pollster; repeated reporting of one survey does not create another independent survey.

House outlook: compare DDHQ October 20 with Cook October 16. Use the less confident category if both favor the same party. If either is a toss-up or they favor different parties, use Toss-up. Senate and governor comparisons use the explicitly dated UVA assessment. Executive comparisons use the dated Jacobson assessment and Horizon’s October 20 category; no Horizon numerical odds are adopted.

Legislative categories remain attributed to Louis Jacobson. Judicial and ballot-measure forecasts remain unassigned where evidence does not support a responsible call. Null unweighted likely-voter sample counts can mean the pollster did not disclose a separate count; this is explained in the record.

Forecast inputs can share polls and correlated errors. DDHQ’s race methodology describes a blend of fundamentals, polls and markets; it is not a polling-only model. Poliwave acknowledges that its model has not been historically calibrated. DDHQ-METHOD · POL

Election night needs separate awaiting-polls, counting, projected, certified and corrected states. A forecast never automatically becomes a race call. Keep immutable dated snapshots and a visible correction log.

This edition was compiled with automated research assistance and source cross-checks. Automated checks do not represent a named human reviewer’s signoff. Original historical calendar records retain their earlier provenance.