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Midterm WatchRaces · forecasts · voting guides

The 2026 election desk

2026 governor races

All 36 governor contests with dated forecast comparisons and their sources.

All 36 governor contests. The sources retain their actual rating dates; a new retrieval does not make an older assessment an October 20 assessment.

Senate UVA rating vintage: Oct 14. Governor UVA rating vintage: Oct 6.
StateDDHQ · Oct 20UVA · dated sourceMidterm WatchEvidence
NevadaToss-upToss-upToss-upDDHQ-G · CB-G
GeorgiaToss-upToss-upToss-upDDHQ-G · CB-G
AlaskaToss-upLean DToss-upDDHQ-G · CB-G
OhioLean DToss-upToss-upDDHQ-G · CB-G
FloridaLean RLean RLean RDDHQ-G · CB-G
KansasLean RLean RLean RDDHQ-G · CB-G
New HampshireLean RLikely RLean RDDHQ-G · CB-G
IowaLean DLean DLean DDDHQ-G · CB-G
WisconsinLean DLean DLean DDDHQ-G · CB-G
TexasLean RLean RLean RDDHQ-G · CB-G
ArizonaLean DLean DLean DDDHQ-G · CB-G
South CarolinaLean RSafe RLean RDDHQ-G · CB-G
MichiganLikely DLean DLean DDDHQ-G · CB-G
OregonLikely DLean DLean DDDHQ-G · CB-G
NebraskaLikely RLikely RLikely RDDHQ-G · CB-G
MaineLikely DLikely DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
New MexicoLikely DSafe DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
MinnesotaLikely DSafe DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
ConnecticutLikely DSafe DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
New YorkLikely DSafe DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
ColoradoLikely DSafe DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
AlabamaLikely RSafe RLikely RDDHQ-G · CB-G
IllinoisLikely DSafe DLikely DDDHQ-G · CB-G
TennesseeLikely RSafe RLikely RDDHQ-G · CB-G
VermontLikely RLikely RLikely RDDHQ-G · CB-G
CaliforniaSafe DSafe DSafe DDDHQ-G · CB-G
PennsylvaniaSafe DSafe DSafe DDDHQ-G · CB-G
Rhode IslandSafe DSafe DSafe DDDHQ-G · CB-G
OklahomaSafe RSafe RSafe RDDHQ-G · CB-G
South DakotaSafe RSafe RSafe RDDHQ-G · CB-G
ArkansasSafe RSafe RSafe RDDHQ-G · CB-G
HawaiiSafe DSafe DSafe DDDHQ-G · CB-G
MassachusettsSafe DSafe DSafe DDDHQ-G · CB-G
IdahoSafe RSafe RSafe RDDHQ-G · CB-G
MarylandSafe DSafe DSafe DDDHQ-G · CB-G
WyomingSafe RSafe RSafe RDDHQ-G · CB-G