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Midterm WatchRaces · forecasts · voting guides

Corrections stay on the record.

This edition resolves conflicting instructions explicitly and excludes unsupported claims. Source conflicts, corrections and limitations are kept visible.

October 20, 2026 verification dispositions
ItemDispositionResolution
CT-registration-receiptresolvedResolved: current state voter guide and municipal notices confirm October 16 postmark; same-day registration is a separate in-person route.
NV-onlineresolvedResolved: online same-day registration continues through November 3, but late registrants must vote in person. A generic five-days-before rule was not used.
OK-registration-receiptresolvedResolved: state registration instructions and Ballotpedia confirm the October 9 postmark rule.
AK-mail-ruleresolvedResolved: October 24 application receipt, not merely postmark; separate electronic-delivery deadlines are explained.
KS-mail-ruleresolvedResolved: applications must be filed by October 27. Current official guidance retains the court-ordered ballot postmark grace period; older static calendar wording was superseded.
MN-poll-metadataresolvedResolved using original SurveyUSA PDF: fieldwork October 8–12, original release October 13, 718 likely voters, 45–42.
ME-fieldworkresolvedResolved using Suffolk methodology: October 8–11; 500 likely voters; ±4.4 points.
NC-LV-metadataresolvedResolved using original toplines: 561 likely voters; ±4.9 credibility interval, distinct from 800 adults and ±4.03.
house-mirror-staleresolvedResolved by replacing the stale UVA House mirror with the original October 16 Cook ratings and checking all 435 districts against DDHQ.
uf-national-totalexcluded from public claimsClosed by exclusion: no national early-vote count is asserted or imported. A single-source number is not needed for a defensible forecast, and is not relabeled verified.
finance-totalsresolvedResolved for the published finance scope: both Texas Senate nominees’ 2026 authorized-committee receipts, disbursements and cash through September 30 reconcile with OpenFEC and secondary figures. Three committee records were summed; an auxiliary-fund termination label was distinguished from the principal committee. Unreconciled figures elsewhere remain excluded.
remaining-voting-fieldsresolvedResolved for the published ordinary-domestic calendar: all 51 request, in-person voting, return and poll-hour summaries compared across source documents; local variation is explicit. Unverified uniform opening times and portal availability are not asserted.
runoff-recordsresolvedResolved: all three conditional dates and office scopes rechecked; Louisiana House versus Senate systems distinguished.
downballot-predictionsresolvedResolved: legislative, executive, judicial and measure watch entries added. Unsupported court/measure winner probabilities are explicitly unforecasted.

For a correction, identify the page and exact claim, the proposed replacement and a dated primary source. Send correction evidence to admin@oakandmain.dev. The editorial byline is Oak and Main Developers. For an immediate voting question, use the election authority linked in your state guide.