State legislative chambers
32 chambers to watch, with attributed assessments and coalition and supermajority context.
Watch 32 legislative chambers: the 15 competitive/coalition contests in Jacobson’s October 16 assessment, plus selected control and supermajority battles. His Likely category can flag minority-party gains without implying the majority is likely to flip. UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
New Hampshire House and Wisconsin Senate lean Democratic in this assessment. Arizona’s chambers, Michigan’s chambers, Minnesota’s chambers, Pennsylvania Senate and Wisconsin Assembly remain toss-ups. Alaska’s governing coalitions require a different control label from a numerical party majority. UVA-LEG · NCSL
| Chamber | Current governing context | Jacobson outlook · Oct 16 | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | Bipartisan coalition | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Alaska House | Bipartisan coalition | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Arizona Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Arizona House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Georgia House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Maine House | Democratic-led; independents matter | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Michigan Senate | Democratic | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Michigan House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Minnesota Senate | Democratic | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Minnesota House | 67–67 power-sharing arrangement | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| New Hampshire House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Pennsylvania Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Wisconsin Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Wisconsin Assembly | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Pennsylvania House | Democratic | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Maine Senate | Democratic | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Florida Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Florida House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Georgia Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Indiana House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Iowa Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Iowa House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Kansas House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Missouri Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Missouri House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| North Carolina Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| North Carolina House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Ohio Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Ohio House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Texas Senate | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG | |
| Texas House | Republican | UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG |