State executive races
60 selected statewide executive contests, including all 30 attorney general and 26 elected secretary of state races.
All 30 state attorney general and 26 elected secretary of state races, plus three lieutenant governor contests and Minnesota auditor. Jacobson’s assessments are dated August 20 (AG) and September 9 (SOS); Horizon’s comparison is dated October 20. Horizon’s numerical odds are not adopted because this package has not validated its calibration. UVA-AG · UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-AG · BP-SOS
The comparison rule is deliberately conservative. Georgia’s AG and secretary of state races remain Toss-up here when the dated assessments favor different parties. A strong national environment alone does not establish a down-ballot winner.
| Contest | Featured candidates | Jacobson · Aug/Sep | Horizon · Oct 20 | Editorial outlook | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (AL) · Attorney general | Jeffrey McLaughlin (D); Katherine Robertson (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Arizona (AZ) · Attorney general | Kris Mayes (D); Warren Petersen (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Arkansas (AR) · Attorney general | Tim Griffin (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| California (CA) · Attorney general | Rob Bonta (D); Michael Gates (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Colorado (CO) · Attorney general | Jena Griswold (D); Michael Allen (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Connecticut (CT) · Attorney general | William Tong (D); John Bolton (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Delaware (DE) · Attorney general | Kathy Jennings (D); David Graham (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Florida (FL) · Attorney general | José Javier Rodríguez (D); James Uthmeier (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Georgia (GA) · Attorney general | Tanya Miller (D); Brian Strickland (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Idaho (ID) · Attorney general | Lori Hickman (D); Raúl Labrador (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Illinois (IL) · Attorney general | Kwame Raoul (D); Bob Fioretti (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Iowa (IA) · Attorney general | Nate Willems (D); Brenna Bird (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Kansas (KS) · Attorney general | Chris Mann (D); Kris Kobach (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Maryland (MD) · Attorney general | Anthony Brown (D); James B. Rutledge III (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Massachusetts (MA) · Attorney general | Andrea Campbell (D); Michael Walsh (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Michigan (MI) · Attorney general | Eli Savit (D); Doug Lloyd (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Minnesota (MN) · Attorney general | Keith Ellison (D); Ron Schutz (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Nebraska (NE) · Attorney general | Jocelyn Brasher (D); Mike Hilgers (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Nevada (NV) · Attorney general | Nicole Cannizzaro (D); Adriana Guzmán Fralick (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| New Mexico (NM) · Attorney general | Raúl Torrez (D); Samuel Kane (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| New York (NY) · Attorney general | Letitia James (D); Saritha Komatireddy (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| North Dakota (ND) · Attorney general | Timothy Lamb (D); Drew Wrigley (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Ohio (OH) · Attorney general | John Kulewicz (D); Keith Faber (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Oklahoma (OK) · Attorney general | Nick Coffey (D); Jon Echols (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Rhode Island (RI) · Attorney general | Kim Ahern (D); Alan Gordon (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| South Carolina (SC) · Attorney general | Richard Hricik (D); David Stumbo (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| South Dakota (SD) · Attorney general | Lance Russell (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Texas (TX) · Attorney general | Nathan Johnson (D); Mayes Middleton (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Vermont (VT) · Attorney general | Charity Clark (D); Edwin Kemon (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Wisconsin (WI) · Attorney general | Josh Kaul (D); Eric Toney (R) | UVA-AG · HORIZON · BP-AG | |||
| Alabama (AL) · Secretary of state | Wayne Rogers (D); Caroleene Dobson (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Arizona (AZ) · Secretary of state | Adrian Fontes (D); Alexander Kolodin (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Arkansas (AR) · Secretary of state | Kelly Grappe (D); Kim Hammer (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| California (CA) · Secretary of state | Shirley Weber (D); Donald P. Wagner (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Colorado (CO) · Secretary of state | Amanda Gonzalez (D); James Wiley (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Connecticut (CT) · Secretary of state | Stephanie Thomas (D); Peter Lumaj (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Georgia (GA) · Secretary of state | Penny Brown Reynolds (D); Tim Fleming (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Idaho (ID) · Secretary of state | Shawn Keenan (D); Phil McGrane (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Illinois (IL) · Secretary of state | Alexi Giannoulias (D); Diane Harris (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Indiana (IN) · Secretary of state | Beau Bayh (D); Max Engling (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Iowa (IA) · Secretary of state | Ryan Peterman (D); Paul Pate (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Kansas (KS) · Secretary of state | Jennifer Day (D); Pat Proctor (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Massachusetts (MA) · Secretary of state | William Galvin (D); Anne Brensley (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Michigan (MI) · Secretary of state | Garlin Gilchrist (D); Anthony Forlini (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Minnesota (MN) · Secretary of state | Steve Simon (D); Tad Jude (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Nebraska (NE) · Secretary of state | Sarah Slattery (D); Scott Petersen (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Nevada (NV) · Secretary of state | Cisco Aguilar (D); Jim Marchant (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| New Mexico (NM) · Secretary of state | Amanda López Askin (D); Ramona Goolsby (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| North Dakota (ND) · Secretary of state | Ryan Braunberger (D); Michael Howe (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Ohio (OH) · Secretary of state | Allison Russo (D); Robert Sprague (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Rhode Island (RI) · Secretary of state | Gregg Amore (D) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| South Carolina (SC) · Secretary of state | Jason Belton (D); Mark Hammond (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| South Dakota (SD) · Secretary of state | Terrence Davis (D); Heather Baxter (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Vermont (VT) · Secretary of state | Sarah Copeland Hanzas (D); Brooke Paige (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Wisconsin (WI) · Secretary of state | JoCasta Zamarripa (D); Jay Schroeder (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Wyoming (WY) · Secretary of state | Bryan McCarty (D); Robert Short (R) | UVA-SOS · HORIZON · BP-SOS | |||
| Georgia (GA) · Lieutenant governor | Josh McLaurin (D); Greg Dolezal (R) | — | HORIZON · BP-LT | ||
| Nevada (NV) · Lieutenant governor | Sandra Jauregui (D); Stavros Anthony (R) | — | HORIZON · BP-LT | ||
| Texas (TX) · Lieutenant governor | Vikki Goodwin (D); Dan Patrick (R) | — | HORIZON · BP-LT | ||
| Minnesota (MN) · State auditor | Zack Filipovich (D); Scott Jensen (R) | — | HORIZON · MN-PDF |